As the Stock Market Expands

As the bull market continues through its ninth year, a little-known stock market indicator with a “5 for 5” record since 1895 has just generated a sell signal. The indicator is the creation of Gray Cardiff, editor of the Sound Advice newsletter. He calls it the “Sound Advice Risk Indicator”, which is simply the ratio of the S&P 500 to the median price of a new home.

Cardiff explains that the indicator quantifies the “struggle for capital” between stocks and real estate. When the indicator rises above 2.0, he explains, it means the stock market has absorbed a “larger proportion of available investment capital than economic conditions can justify.”

The last time the indicator flashed a sell signal was in 1998—conveniently before the dot.com implosion that followed. However, this indicator did NOT give a sell signal in 2007, since it was Real Estate that had proportionately too much investment then!

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