Womack Weekly
Commentary
March 20,
2017
The Markets
Three steps and no stumble…
Technical
analyst Edson Gould developed a market rule of thumb known as ‘three steps and
a stumble.’ It states stock prices may fall after the Federal Reserve (Fed) raises
the Fed funds rate three times in a row without a decline, according to Market Technicians Association. [1]
The
idea is three increases show the Fed is serious about keeping rates at a
relatively high level for a significant length of time. Higher interest rates could
potentially mean higher costs and lower profits for businesses. As a result,
stock investors may sell shares and share prices may fall. [2]
Last
week, with employment and inflation data approaching Fed targets, the Federal
Open Market Committee raised rates for the third time, pushing the Fed funds
target rate into the 0.75 percent to 1 percent range, reported Financial Times: [3]
“Fed
policymakers’ forecasts for growth and inflation remained little changed, with
growth tipped to be 2.1 percent this year and next year, slipping to 1.9 percent
in 2019. Core inflation is set to be 1.9 percent in 2017 and 2 percent in the
two following years. The possibility of looser fiscal policy emerging from
Congress has triggered speculation that the central bank will have to further
accelerate its rate-rising campaign, but a number of policymakers are insistent
that they want to see firmer plans emerging from Congress before making a call
on the impact of possible tax cuts on the economy.”
Major
U.S. stock market indices finished the week higher, as did most markets in
Europe and Asia. [4] MarketWatch
indicated Asian markets were encouraged by indications the Fed may not increase
rates as often as expected this year, [5] and CNBC reported European markets were boosted by a
better-than-expected outcome for mainstream parties in Dutch elections. [6]
Data as of 3/17/17
|
1-Week
|
Y-T-D
|
1-Year
|
3-Year
|
5-Year
|
10-Year
|
Standard & Poor's 500
(Domestic Stocks)
|
0.2%
|
6.2%
|
16.6%
|
8.6%
|
11.0%
|
5.4%
|
Dow Jones Global ex-U.S.
|
2.4
|
7.8
|
10.8
|
-0.4
|
2.0
|
-0.6
|
10-year Treasury Note (Yield
Only)
|
2.5
|
NA
|
1.9
|
2.7
|
2.4
|
4.6
|
Gold (per ounce)
|
2.2
|
6.1
|
-2.9
|
-3.7
|
-5.8
|
6.5
|
Bloomberg Commodity Index
|
1.0
|
-2.7
|
4.8
|
-14.1
|
-10.3
|
-6.5
|
DJ Equity All REIT Total
Return Index
|
2.3
|
1.1
|
5.5
|
10.3
|
10.1
|
4.8
|
S&P
500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude
reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and
10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index does
include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are
annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of
the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources:
Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.
Past
performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot
be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.
I spy with my little eye…Robots! If you take a cruise anytime soon, the bartender may
not be able to lend an ear. According to Financial
Times, one cruise line has installed robotic bartenders that produce one
drink per minute per arm, and can make up to 120 drinks an hour. [7]
It’s
not just cruise lines, either. The food industry in the United States is
automating. Financial Times described
food preparation at a pizza restaurant in California: [7]
“…Pepe
squirts tomato sauce on to a pizza base before his colleague Marta spreads it;
Noel has 22 seconds to correct any imperfections and add cheese and other
toppings, after which Bruno takes the pizza from the line and places it in the
oven. But on this production line, only Noel is human. The others – anthropomorphised
by name only – are machines conducting tasks usually performed by people.”
The
restaurant has 75 human employees who earn about $18.00 an hour. They all are given
opportunities to take coding classes so they can better understand and manage
robots as well as the artificial intelligence used to evaluate delivery routes.
[7]
Then,
there is Sally, a robot offered by a food robotics firm. Sally can produce “…
fully-customized, fresh, and healthy salads. Sally’s proprietary technology
dispenses measured quantities of more than 20 ingredients – refreshed daily – to
create a ready-to-eat meal any time of day.” Alternate versions of this robot
will offer Mexican and Indian food choices. [8]
Competition
for employees is becoming a significant issue in the restaurant industry,
reported the National Restaurant
Association. More than a quarter of restaurant operators, who participated
in a January 2017 survey, said recruiting and retaining employees is the single
most important challenge they face – a 9 percent jump from 2015. That’s the
highest level since October 2007. [9]
Soon,
the attraction for young children at burger joints may be watching robotic
characters pull together kids’ meals!
Weekly
Focus – Think About It
“There is a
point in every contest when sitting on the sidelines is not an option.”
--Dean
Smith, Former Head Coach, University of North Carolina Tar Heels [10]
Best regards,
Womack Investment Advisers,
Inc.
WOMACK
INVESTMENT ADVISERS, INC.
Oklahoma / Main Office: 1366 E. 15th Street - Edmond, OK 73013
California Office: 4660 La Jolla Village Dr., Ste. 500 - San Diego, CA 92122
Phone (405) 340-1717 - Toll Free (877) 340-1717
Oklahoma / Main Office: 1366 E. 15th Street - Edmond, OK 73013
California Office: 4660 La Jolla Village Dr., Ste. 500 - San Diego, CA 92122
Phone (405) 340-1717 - Toll Free (877) 340-1717
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*
These views are those of Peak Advisor Alliance, and not the presenting
Representative or the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, and should not be
construed as investment advice.
*
This newsletter was prepared by Peak Advisor Alliance. Peak Advisor Alliance is
not affiliated with the named broker/dealer.
*
Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to
the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a
fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.
However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
*
Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally
offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk
as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price,
yield, maturity, and redemption features.
*
The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities
considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot
invest directly in this index.
*
All indices referenced are unmanaged. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect
fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the
performance of any investment.
*
The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market
capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the
Index.
*
The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to
the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower,
investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond
market.
*
Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion
Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing
Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy
ounce.
*
The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified
benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures
contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
*
The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance
of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry
as calculated by Dow Jones.
*
Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index
between two specific periods.
*
Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as
investment advice or to predict future performance.
*
Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no
guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
*
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk,
including loss of principal.
*
You cannot invest directly in an index.
*
Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
*
Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal.
*
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Sources:
[3] https://www.ft.com/content/6723f69c-09a4-11e7-ac5a-903b21361b43
(or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/03-20-17_FinancialTimes-Fed_Increases_Interest_Rates_as_Inflation_Pressures_Loom-Footnote_3.pdf)
[4] http://www.barrons.com/mdc/public/page/9_3063-economicCalendar.html
(click on U.S. & Intl Recaps, select "The central banks have spoken,"
and scroll down to the Global Stock Market Recap) (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/03-20-17_Barrons-Global_Stock_Market_Recap-Footnote_4.pdf)
[7] https://www.ft.com/content/71e8c01e-fac0-11e6-9516-2d969e0d3b65 (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/03-20-17_FinancialTimes-Burgers_and_Mircrochips_on_the_Menu_for_US_Fast-food_Chains-Footnote_7.pdf)
[10]
http://www.success.com/mobile/article/19-inspiring-quotes-from-ncaa-basketballs-greatest-coaches
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