Skip to main content

We've Been in a Bull Market for 9 Years



Nine years into the current bull market more and more are beginning to wonder “how much longer can it go on?” Tony Dwyer, equity strategist at Canaccord Genuity, reiterated his S&P 500 target of 3,200 for the end of this year (a nearly 11% rise from current levels), based on the strong manufacturing report this week. 

Dwyer went further and projected the index to rise to 3,360 in 2019, highlighting his view that a recession isn’t lurking “anywhere close”.  He wrote “The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed that the manufacturing sector remains on very solid ground.  History shows that since 1950, the ISM typically peaks well before the economy enters recession or the S&P 500 hits the cycle high, especially over the past three levered economic periods.” 

Dwyer notes that on average the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing reading peaked a median 31.5 months before the start of a recession, and that the S&P 500 usually gains about 35.4% in the subsequent two years following the peak.  While there are a couple of exceptions to his rule, Dwyer notes that the inflation and interest rate environments then were quite different from the current situation. (chart from Canaccord Genuity)


Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Another Tornado Record's in Sight for U.S. as Thunderstorms Boom

Bloomberg by Brian K Sullivan Another wave of tornado-spawning thunderstorms is set to rip across the Great Plains and South this week, putting the U.S. within reach of a record year for life-threatening twisters. Severe storms will drench a swath of the country from Texas to Mississippi over the next five days, according to the U.S. Storm Prediction Center. Through Thursday, 369 tornadoes have been reported across the country, the most in five years and more than double the normal number of sightings. An active jet stream and unusually balmy weather are to blame for the burst of deadly tornado activity, the storm prediction center said. Strong winds have dragged storms into the warm, humid air that’s blanketed the eastern half of the nation, creating conditions ripe for a weather phenomenon that leads to at least $400 million in damage a year in the U.S. “We have a severe threat starting today and continuing for each of the next five days through at least Monday

Markets Were Rattled Last Week

 The market hates surprises, especially when the surprise comes from a central bank. Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) unexpectedly reversed course and took a more accommodative stance on monetary policy in an effort to encourage stronger European economic growth. Tom Fairless of Barron’s explained: “Officials are seeking to shore up an economy that has been rattled by shocks ranging from a slowdown in China to mass protests in France and bottlenecks in Germany’s crucial auto industry. They are threading a careful path between providing sufficient support for the region’s softening economy while avoiding any appearance of panic, which could ricochet through financial markets.” The Eurozone isn’t the only region feeling the pinch of weaker economic growth. China’s exports were down more than 20 percent in February, reported Investing.com . Analysts had expected a decline of about 5 percent. Concerns about the health of China’s economy have been growing since the p

There's a New Addition to the Airport Security Team

  Dogs may be some of the world’s most effective disease detectives. In January, before COVID-19 was known to have arrived on our shores, NPR wrote about the dogs’ ability to smell disease. The host of Medical Monday interviewed Maria Goodavage, author of Doctor Dogs: How Our Best Friends Are Becoming Our Best Medicine , who said:   “With ovarian cancer, there's not much great testing for early detection. I heard about these dogs at the University of Pennsylvania Veterinary Working Dog Center that are able to smell ovarian cancer. They're able to detect it as early as stage one. We're not even talking tumors here. They're able to detect ovarian cancer in one drop of plasma from a woman with ovarian cancer.” Doctor dogs also are being trained to detect the novel coronavirus. Reuters reported, “A study recently found dogs can identify infected individuals with 85 percent to 100 percent accuracy and rule out infection with 92 percent to 99 percent accuracy.” Airp