We've Been in a Bull Market for 9 Years

Nine years into the current bull market more and more are beginning to wonder “how much longer can it go on?” Tony Dwyer, equity strategist at Canaccord Genuity, reiterated his S&P 500 target of 3,200 for the end of this year (a nearly 11% rise from current levels), based on the strong manufacturing report this week.

Dwyer went further and projected the index to rise to 3,360 in 2019, highlighting his view that a recession isn’t lurking “anywhere close”. He wrote “The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed that the manufacturing sector remains on very solid ground. History shows that since 1950, the ISM typically peaks well before the economy enters recession or the S&P 500 hits the cycle high, especially over the past three levered economic periods.”

Dwyer notes that on average the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing reading peaked a median 31.5 months before the start of a recession, and that the S&P 500 usually gains about 35.4% in the subsequent two years following the peak. While there are a couple of exceptions to his rule, Dwyer notes that the inflation and interest rate environments then were quite different from the current situation. (chart from Canaccord Genuity)

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The market hates surprises, especially when the surprise comes from a central bank. Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) unexpectedly reversed course and took a more accommodative stance on monetary policy in an effort to encourage stronger European economic growth. Tom Fairless of Barron’s explained: “Officials are seeking to shore up an economy that has been rattled by shocks ranging from a slowdown in China to mass protests in France and bottlenecks in Germany’s crucial auto industry. They are threading a careful path between providing sufficient support for the region’s softening economy while avoiding any appearance of panic, which could ricochet through financial markets.” The Eurozone isn’t the only region feeling the pinch of weaker economic growth. China’s exports were down more than 20 percent in February, reported Investing.com . Analysts had expected a decline of about 5 percent. Concerns about the health of China’s economy have been growing since the p

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