Are These Signs Pointing to a U.S. Recession?

As the stock market continues to grind higher and investors become more complacent we turn our attention to one data point that has remained a “stubbornly fail-safe marker” of economic contraction since 1960. Every time Commercial & Industrial (C&I) loan balances have declined or stagnated—a recession was already in progress or was imminent. This can be seen in the following graphic, from Zero Hedge using Federal Reserve data.

On a year-over-year basis, after growing at a 7% year over year pace at the beginning of 2017, the latest bank loan update from the Fed showed that the annual rate of increase in C&I loans is down to just 1.6%--its lowest since 2011. Should the rate of loan growth deceleration persist, in roughly four to six weeks, the U.S. would post its first year-over-year loan contraction since the financial crisis. This graphic illustrates how steep the decline has been.

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Womack Weekly Commentary: September 18, 2017

Womack Weekly Commentary September 18, 2017 The Markets “In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice, in practice there is.” Yogi Berra was talking about baseball, but the concept also applies to diversification, according to the GMO White Paper, The S&P 500: Just Say No . From the title, you might think the authors – Matt Kadnar and James Montier – don’t like U.S. stocks. They do: “Being a U.S. equity investor over the past several years has felt glorious. The S&P 500 has trounced the competition provided by other major developed and emerging equity markets. Over the last 7 years, the S&P is up 173 percent (15 percent annualized in nominal terms) versus MSCI EAFE (in USD terms), which is up 71 percent (8 percent annualized), and poor MSCI Emerging, which is up only 30 percent (4 percent annualized). Every dollar invested in the S&P has compounded into $2.72 versus MSCI EAFE’s $1.70 and MSCI Emerging’s $1.30.” The au...

Another Tornado Record's in Sight for U.S. as Thunderstorms Boom

Bloomberg by Brian K Sullivan Another wave of tornado-spawning thunderstorms is set to rip across the Great Plains and South this week, putting the U.S. within reach of a record year for life-threatening twisters. Severe storms will drench a swath of the country from Texas to Mississippi over the next five days, according to the U.S. Storm Prediction Center. Through Thursday, 369 tornadoes have been reported across the country, the most in five years and more than double the normal number of sightings. An active jet stream and unusually balmy weather are to blame for the burst of deadly tornado activity, the storm prediction center said. Strong winds have dragged storms into the warm, humid air that’s blanketed the eastern half of the nation, creating conditions ripe for a weather phenomenon that leads to at least $400 million in damage a year in the U.S. “We have a severe threat starting today and continuing for each of the next five days through at lea...

Pandemic-Driven Demand Is Providing Fuel for Investors

For four weeks, the U.S. stock market has sparked and sputtered like a campfire in light rain. Today, pandemic-driven demand is providing fuel for the investors. The need for certain types of products and services has accelerated and innovation is creating new opportunities. Consider: · Technology . Today, digital technologies support nearly all group interactions, which has accelerated innovation. Traditional video communications platforms are in high demand, and multi-person virtual platforms are emerging. Robotics innovations are racing ahead, too. Robotic dogs enforce social distancing in Singaporean parks, reported Accenture. Other types of robots sanitize streets and facilitate contact-less delivery around the globe. · Consumer products and services . COVID-19 increased demand for staples, cleaning, and personal hygiene products. The virus may have inspired deeper and longer-lasting changes in consumer behavio...

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